As prices of houses continue to reduce default and credit cards mounted, federal regulation are holding devices for dozens of U.S. banks not next year.
But after a great Hypothekarkreditgeber in California broke late Friday, Wall Street analysts began with two crucial questions: How many banks are reluctant? And more than a matter of urgency, which could be next?

The banks of the country are much less the risk that they were at the end of 1980 and early 1990, when more than 1000 of the federal government has assured the institutions in the course of savings and loan agreement - crisis. The debacle, the biggest collapse of financial institutions of America since the economic crisis, a government had to rescue cost taxpayers about $ 125 billion.

But the disturbances are always so quick to some small and medium-sized banks, that the number from 150 to 7500 banks in the country in the next 12 to 18 months, say the analysts. Other donors are probably the closure of branches or mergers.

“The whole world is the creation of lists trying to understand the next bank, No. 1 and No. 2, how many of them are there,” said Richard X. Bove, banking analyst with Ladenburg Thalmann, who will publish a list of banks in difficulties during the weekend. “And No. 3, from the perspective of Washington, how bad does it impact on the economy?”

Many investors are on the alert after the federal system, the lender California, IndyMac Bank, one of the nation’s largest savings and ready, in the last week. With $ 32 billion of assets, IndyMac, one of the effects of the Countrywide Financial Corporation, the largest creditor of the United States to fail in more than two decades.

Today, as the Bush administration, how they deal with the crisis in the nation, the two largest companies in the financing of mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a race to win reports in the coming days and weeks of some of the nation’s largest financial service providers afford , the darker memories of the sad situation of this industry.

The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is crucial for banks, savings and loans and loans exceeding 1.3 billion U.S. dollars of securities or guarantee by the two mortgage banks. If the mortgage giant never to these obligations, banks are required to billions of dollars of capital.

The main institutions to report results this week, notably Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, are not a risk, you should have some more of several billion dollars profit and loss account.

But the Time May be exported to some small and medium-sized lenders. They differ in size and position, but their misfortune is the collapse of the real estate market and souring mortgages. Most of these banks are much smaller than the giants of the industry, which have the examination of the rules and the investors.

But only six donors have failed so far this year, which IndyMac. In 1994, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for 575 listed banks in difficulty. From this spring, the agency is worried only 90 banks. This figure May go in August, when the government came a current list.

“Can banks are an indicator of the delay in development, not an indicator,” said William Isaac, president of the FDIC at the beginning of 1980 and is now the President of the Secura Group, a consulting firm in finance, in Virginia. “So you see more disturbed, the banks have not this year.”

IndyMac And yet, one of the nation’s largest lender, not the government, where unrest list Bank in this spring - an indication that other banks in difficulty and May under the radar screen.

The F.D.I.C. With 53 billion U.S. dollars to the site in order to reimburse consumers to not lost deposits banks. IndyMac eat up $ 4 billion to 8 billion U.S. dollars for the fund estimates of the agency responsible for the collection to take more money from the banks that.

The Agency distributed no banks, which he believes in difficulty. But analysts in the market, in their own lists, and short-sellers - investors who bet against shares - are piling up. In recent weeks, while some regional banks like the Bank United Financial Corporation, Florida, and the Corporation Financière Downey, California, stumbled difficult, in the centre of concerns about its financial health. A spokeswoman for United Bank said that the lender has largely avoided subprime loans in danger.

In his “this is the next?” Report on the weekend, M. Bove said part of the loans in banks, which are nonperforming, meaning that for example, have been active, or that the payments are 90 days reserve. He came with what he called a danger zone, which is a share of over 5 percent. Sept banks fell in this category.

An important question for the regional and banks, whether they successfully sell their risky loans to companies on Wall Street.

And the government of May, fewer errors than before because the private investment funds to buy some donors in difficulty. Regulators consider the rules by which private equity firm to buy a greater proportion of banks, and several investors, such as Wilbur Ross, collected money for bond po